As we quickly approach the long-awaited, Germany-hosted, UEFA Euro 2024, Christian Polsater, Director of Sports at LeoVegas Group, shares his insights on all things Euro, football, and betting!
What are your top predictions for Euro 2024 and why? Is it ‘coming home’? Will it be another successful year for ‘Gli Azzurri‘, or will it perhaps be the host Germany’s turn to be crowned champions?
“France and England are the clear favorites, which makes sense if you look at their squads and how these teams have performed recently.
A real outsider would be Croatia. Their odds to win the tournament are very high, partly because they have such a difficult group. But you can never rule them out, as they are incredibly difficult to beat. I think they will reach the play-offs, and anything can happen there.
If I were to choose one winner, though, I would say Portugal. They have many good players and no obvious weaknesses; they could challenge for the title.
I think Germany will do well, but I don’t expect them to go all the way.
Golden boot? Mbappé.”
Have you seen any betting trends for Euro 2024 compared to previous tournaments?
“We expect player markets like shots on target, assists, cards, etc., to continue playing a very important role. In the last couple of years, we have seen incredible growth in Bet Builder turnover, so we expect that to continue.
Other than that, it is always fascinating to follow the patriotic betting patterns in our different markets. Our players generally back their home countries, and it will be interesting to see if this continues in this tournament.”
Which players or teams should we keep an eye on during the tournament?
“Other than the obvious answers—France and Mbappé, England with Bellingham, Foden, and Kane, etc.—I mentioned Croatia as a potential outsider.
A player to keep an eye on is Toni Kroos. The German midfielder is one of my personal favorites, and he has already announced his retirement once the tournament is over. Fairytale ending incoming?”
Do you think data analytics is shaping team strategies in football today?
Absolutely, in many different ways. One fascinating example is how goalkeepers have opponents’ penalty stats printed on their water bottles to know where they normally shoot their penalties.
I’m sure all teams use data to gain any sort of edge that can help them on the pitch. Performance data and physical data also play a key role in tracking how players cope physically to avoid injuries.
What are the biggest challenges and opportunities for sports betting in a major tournament like Euro 2024?
“Betting always has its challenges. One thing that is special about tournaments like this is that there is less data on historical performances. During a normal league season, we see the same teams playing each other with roughly the same squads, making it easier to measure their strengths relative to each other.
National teams play many matches in qualifiers against relatively weak teams, so it is difficult to judge how good they really are when the opposition is tough. Additionally, since the players in each team normally don’t play together regularly, their performances might not be as expected. Teams with squads that don’t seem as impressive on paper but know each other well and really play for each other can have an edge. We have seen this in many tournaments. Who would have predicted Morocco to reach the semi-finals in the World Cup 2022, for example? Or Greece to win Euro 2004, for that matter?”
Share an exciting acca you would bet on!
“Here’s an exciting acca for the first few days of the tournament:
- Spain vs. Croatia – Draw (X)
I think Croatia will grind out a low-scoring draw in the opening game.
- Germany vs. Scotland – Both Teams to Score
Most people are expecting Germany to win this game easily. Scotland can play without any pressure and I think they are perhaps a bit underrated. They have scored against teams like England, France, and Spain in recent history—why not here as well?
- Poland vs. Netherlands – Netherlands to Win
I don’t believe in Poland in this tournament. The Netherlands has a strong team and could get off to a flying start here.
The odds are around 15 on this acca—good luck if you bet on this or anything else during the tournament!”
